Will AI Replace Jobs, Change Jobs, or Create an Entirely New Economy?

It will create an entirely new economy based on 'Hyper-Localisation.' Because AI drastically lowers the cost of intelligence and design, we won't need massive global supply chains to produce generic goods (https://hbr.org/2023/09/how-ai-will-hyper-localize-manufacturing). A local farmer or manufacturer can use AI to design and 3D-print custom parts, or optimise crops for their specific micro-climate. AI breaks the economies of scale that drove globalisation, leading to a resurgence of highly eff...

The Goldman Sachs data point that AI is already reducing US employment by roughly 16, 000 jobs per month is striking, but context matters enormously (https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/the-real-job-destruction-from-ai-is-hitting-before-careers-can-start). The Yale Insights piece on this notes that the impact is hitting entry-level and early-career positions hardest, the very jobs that used to be the on-ramp to professional careers. That's a structural problem that productivity statistics don...